Thought for the day

"Depopulation should be the highest priority of foreign policy towards the third world, because the US economy will require large and increasing amounts of minerals from abroad, especially from less developed countries" -- Henry A. Kissinger

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Traders have woken up this morning to more systemic fragility as Credit Suisse debt and equity is dumped in an unceremonious rejection of the CEO’s letter of reassurance over the weekend.

Who could have seen that coming?

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Putin places blame for Nordstream sabotage squarely on Biden after he threatened to shut it down over Ukraine invasion

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it crystal clear that he blames the United States for sabotaging the Nordstream 1 and 2 natural gas pipelines last week after a video surfaced of President Joe Biden and other U.S. officials threatening to take them out if Russia invaded Ukraine.

The EU’s anti-Russia policies are hurting the French, the politician claims © Getty Images / NurPhoto / Contributor

France should brace for a tough winter as a result of the EU’s anti-Russia sanctions, the leader of the right-wing National Rally parliamentary group said on Tuesday, adding that next winter will be even worse.

Marine Le Pen told BFMTV that the sanctions are not working, and are in fact harming the French people. She argued that the restrictions placed on Russia have proven counterproductive, helping Moscow to increase

According to an economic theory called the Unholy Trinity, governments can only ever have two of the following three things: pegged exchange rates, independent monetary policy and free capital flows.

The reason why this is so is quite complicated. But the point is that they must choose two of the three, making the third a pressure valve for the problems created by their attempts to control the other two.

Of course, governments occasionally try to have all three. But it always ends in humiliation. It’s only a question of when.

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One month ago we said that there is a reason why despite fundamentals, yields and newsflow screaming for lower prices, US equities simply refused to sell off: it was because investors know that the moment the Fed pivots dovish and capitulates on its tightening cycle (a move which could take place at any moment since it is as much political as it is financial), risk will explode limit up.

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New week. New month. New quarter. New brains. New trades. New hope. Or “New balls, please” as they say at Wimbledon.

I don’t have the physical energy to play tennis with markets on an every-other-day basis, sending a detailed volley back at those who think the Fed is about to pivot because of one bad datapoint. That doesn’t mean the UK government can’t though – they just did exactly that on tax cuts.

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Oil prices are extending their recent gains following headlines from Vienna that OPEC+ is considering a reduction in its production limit of as much as 2 million barrels a day.

However, the impact on actual production could be smaller since several members are already pumping far below their officials quotas, meaning they could automatically be in compliance with their new limit without having to curb production.

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